Weekly Playboy Magazine’s AKB48 2013 32nd Single Senbatsu General Election prediction

  April 22, 2013

Every year Weekly Payboy Magazine release their own forecast for AKB48 General Election, and it’s always convincing, coz, some of the best writers about AKB48 are behind the forecast.

Yet, every time, their forecast is betrayed by the surprising reality.

Last year, they predicted Matsui Rena will win 6th spot, Takajo at 12th, Suda Akari at 21th, Umeda Ayaka at 26th, Yagami Kumi at 47th, Kawaei Rina at 49th, Furukawa Airi at 55th, Takahashi Juri at 57th, Mukaida Manatsu at 58th, Mitsumune Kaori at 62th, Matsumura Kaori at 64th and so forth. And Muto Tomu and Tano Yuka’s names were not on their list.

But what those writers know more about any other fans is of course inside situation of the industry. No matter how they try to convince themselves that it’s fans who vote, their subconscious mind, which is how each member is regarded by people in the industry, will surely get in their way.

5 writers who directed this forecast are:

Shinomoto: Author of “AKB48 History – Official Guidebook of KKS”

Inukai: Author of “AKB48 General Election official guidebook”

Yamashita: Editor at UTB, Weekly YOung Jump etc.

Okada Takashi (aka Scramble Egg): Chief Editor of idol website “Scramble Egg”, a walking dictionary of 48G

Aoki Hiroyuki: Chief editor at Kobunsha Entertainment, directing “FLASH”, “Marutto SKE48 Special” etc.

If NHK’s Producer Mr.Ishihara would join this team, that would be the perfect team on the earth.

 Name2013 forecast2012 result
Oshima Yuko0101
Watanabe Mayu0202
Shinoda Mariko0305
Sashihara Rino0404
Kashiwagi Yuki0503
Itano Tomomi0608
Miyazawa Sae0711
Matsui Rena0810
Takahashi Minami0906
Kojima Haruna1007
Matsui Jurina1109
Watanabe Miyuki1219
Yamamoto Sayaka1318
Shimazaki Haruka1423
Yokoyama Yui1515
Takajo Aki1617
Kitahara Rie1713
Umeda Ayaka1816
Minegishi Minami1914
Suda Akari2029
Kuramochi Asuka2122
Kizaki Yuria2231
Ohya Masana2327
Takayanagi Akane2424
Furukawa Airi2530
Sato Amina2621
Miyawaki Sakura2747
Nagao Mariya2839
Iwasa Misaki2933
Kawaei Rina30N/A
Matsumura Kaori3134
Yamada Nana3246
Furuhata Nao33N/A
Kodama Haruka34N/A
Fujie Reina3540
Kimoto Kanon3656
Ohba Mina3757
Tomonaga Mio38Not participated
Joenishi Kei39N/A

Tano Yuka4045
Muto Tomu4149
Maeda Ami4242
Kobayashi Kana4341
Yagura Fuko44N/A
Kikuchi Ayaka4551
Matsui Sakiko4653
Katayama Haruka4748
Ogasawara Mayu4860
Kojima Mako49Not participated
Ishida Haruka5050
Nakanishi Yuka5163
Ichikawa Miori5258
Nakata Chisato5337
Yamauchi Suzuran5454
Yakata Miki5562
Ohta Aika5652
Shibata Ami57N/A
Urano Kazumi58Not participated
Sato Sumire5961
Miyazaki Miho6038
Sato Yukari61Not participated
Shimada Haruka62N/A
Moriyasu Madoka63N/A
Yoshida Akari64N/A

www.dotup.org4148223 www.dotup.org4148234www.dotup.org4148232


Oshima Yuko: No matter how hard we try, it’s impossible to find any reason that she will lose to anyone.

Watanabe Mayu: The only member who has potential to beat Oshima Yuko. But still her determination hasn’t conveyed fully to fans.

Shinoda Mariko: She is enjoying thriving career in diverse fields. Fans must remember the frustration when she lost to Sashihara last year.

Sashihara Rino: She has put HKT48 on track and lead it success. She is even able to make a joke about her scandal. At this point, we can say her popularity is mainly established from her activities not as an idol.

Kashiwagi Yuki: She has lost momentum she had last year. We don’t see insane long line at her handshake lane, but Kashiwagi herself seems to be aware of this and feeling a sense of crisis.

Itano Tomimi: She is one of the most well known member in AKB48 and if she can increase her rank this year, it will be a great gift for her graduation.

Miyazawa Sae: Fans know what they can do for Sae, who is still unable to start activities as SNH48 member because of working VISA issuement problem. She must become Kami8 in order to  break this deadlock. Many of her fans have already prepared to cast a bunch of votes, so her rank is likely to increase significantly.

Takahashi Minami: It’s unclear how her solo debut will affect the election. But no matter where she will rank, Takamina is Takamina, she is the essential figure for AKB48 group. (“Have more fun!”)

Watanabe Miyuki: She is the second popular member at AKb48 handshake event after Oshima Yuko. And her solo photobook is still selling well.

Yamamoto Sayaka: NMB48 fans are passionately supporting her, thus she must be a strong contender.

Shimazaki Haruka: After MechaIke, her Ponkotsu character is known across the country, and she has gained tons of new fans.

Yokoyama Yui: Clearly the transfer to NMB48 helped her gain more fans. TV commercial for “U-Can” is aired nationwide, making her popular among the general public as well.

Kitahara Rie: If her appearance in the Drama “Kazoku Game” help her gain a bunch of new fans , it’s not impossible for her to win Senbatsu spot.

Minegishi Minami: Only her fans frantic effort can break the grim mood.

Kizaki Yuria: It’s up to how fans respond to her declaration that she wants to win Senbatsu spot. It’s not just a sweet dream to achieve it if she can earn votes from fans of graduated members.

Furukawa Airi: She has diverse hobbies and personal interests, which makes her popular among all variety of fans. She has earned a great reputation for Nagoya Gaishi concert.

Sato Amina: The veteran who has pretty stable fanbase. The number of votes she gainedin the election changed by only 500 votes from 2011 to 2012.

Miyawaki Sakura: Combination of the popularity as an individual and HKT48 wil make her significantly increase the rank.

Nagao Mariya: With her current momentum, she can make it all the way to Under Girls.

Kawaei Rina: She has been outstanding for the past 12 months, now it’s time to achieve a smashing result in the election.

Kodama Haruka: She and her fans share the determination to avenge the last year’s miserable defeat.

Kimoto Kanon: Mass graduation of middle class members will definitely affect her rank positively.

Ohba Mina: She ranked at 35th in 2011. It’s just 2012 was the exceptionally bad for her.

Tomonaga Mio: Her popularity at HS event is now coming closer to Sashihara Rino. She may rank higher than this prediction.

Joenishi Kei: She has a great personality and popular both among fans and staffs. She is also loved by lots of junior members.

Tano Yuka: She has been increasing her presence as a good dancer, but may need one more edge in order to make a breakthrough. (TanoTomu)

Muyto Tomu: 2012’s cinderella girl, who has almost exclusively gained her popularity from theater performances. She is Oshima Yuko’s 1 Oshi. (TanoTomu)

Edotors picks – If you could make one member rank in, who would you choose?

WPB editors team:

Iriyama Anna – Considering the amount of media exposure she got, it’s no surprise that she will win a spot.

Scramble Egg:

Oshima Ryoka – Her performance skill is out standing.

Shinomoto: Sasaki Yukari

Inukai: Suga Nanako

Yamashita: Shiroma Miru

Aoki: Yabushita Shu

*Members won their spots in the last year’s election but won’t participate this year:

12th Kasai Tomomi (graduated)

20th Akimoto Sayaka (graduating)

25th Hata Sawako (graduated)

26th Masuda Yuka (graduated)

28th Yagami Kumi (graduated)

32th Ogiso Shiori (graduated)

35th Mukaida Manatsu

36th Nakaya Sayaka (graduated)

43th Fukumoto Aina (graduated)

44th Nakagawa Haruka

55th Nito Moeno (graduated)