Why these NMB48 members rank in 37th single Sousenkyo preliminary result and who should have ranked?

NMB48 Theater Manager – Kaneko Takeshi- apologizes for the low amount of members that are ranked this year as part of his responsibility.

In response to Mr.Kaneko Takeshi’s speech about his responsibility as the manager for NMB48, I want to take a look why there is not a lot of members rank this year in the hope that we can see what other members are lacking of. I will speculate of what might affect the current ranked members positively and negatively.

These speculation will come from my perspective about the events that happened in 2013. If you think there are other reasons that I might have missed in the article, by all means – please mention them in the comment section!

Note: I have been holding off writing this article for a more reliable result. But since we are close to the final day, I will use the 1st day result. I will make any update if there are new results before 06/07.

Why these NMB48 members rank in 37th single Sousenkyo preliminary result?

Kashiwagi Yuki (4th → 4th)

It is unsurprising that she would places 4th. She has been hovering in the top Kami 7 for a long time and has been doing well for herself. She regularly appears on TV as a weather woman which helps her keep a steady level of popularity. In addition to that, her solo career and drama series (Mieriino Kashiwagi) keep her in the public eye.

On the other hand, what is unexpected this year is Yuki ranks below Matsui Jurina because she usually ranks below Watanabe Mayu. This can come from the recent graduates, most notables are Mariko Shinoda and Oshima Yuko. Let assume that all the graduates’ fans remain supporting AKB48 and its sister groups and there is no change in the amount of fans. Since Mariko and Jurina are close, it is very likely that some Mariko fans have formed a preference for Jurina. Therefore, this makes Jurina next in line after Mariko graduated and boost her votes above Yuki. The same can be applied for Yuki but I don’t know which graduate’s fans might shift to Yuki and help her tremendously (if any).

Yamamoto Sayaka (14th → 7th)

A great boost in her ranking can be contributed to the lack of competition. It is not the only reason of course, but since the 3 most formidable members have graduated, their positions are vacant for the taking.

On the other hand, Sayaka has successfully grabbed the chance to star in her own show called “Music Oneesan”. This is some of the few shows where Sayaka shows her knowledge and passion for rock music. There is a compassion that can be drawn from her and Sashihara Rino. Sasshi appears a lots in TV with many well known comedians, attracts the uncharted  demographic and this is one of the cause for her raise in popularity.

For Sayaka, with her new show, she can do the very same thing. Therefore, it explains why Sayaka enjoys a great boost in her ranking.

Watanabe Miyuki (15th → 25th)

Some people can say it is expected for her to drop in ranking after her recent scandal. It is unknown of how great the effect is, but its negative effect on Milky’s popularity is undeniable. The scandal’s effect is more relevant now since Minegishi Minami also drops out of the Senbatsu line up after her scandal.

Yamada Nana (28th → 26th)

“Safety first” is what she aims for this year and she certainly gets it. One of the more well known member of NMB48 for either her fail character or her high pitch voice, or may be both. It is hard to  miss her since most members in NMB48 would make fun of Nana for being an old lady / her fail character / high pitch voice.

Although it looks fun from a fan perspective, it indirectly contributes to her popularity since it directs attention to her. Nana has always been part of the NMB48 Senbatsu line up. Even though she is not as popular as Milky or Sayane, she has always enjoyed a steady rise in ranking and no drop, which one day could creep up on other members in the future. On another side note, she has a supporting role in the TV drama “Isharyou Bengoshi” this year.

Umeda Ayaka (19th → 36th)

With the current preliminary result, Umeda’s rank drops quite significantly from her previous result. The only recent event that could have caused this is her transfer to team BII. But how it actually affects is unknown, I will leave it to everyone to speculate.

Umeda certainly has been experiencing a fall in ranking ever since she dropped from out the Senbatsu line up. The issue here can be because of stagnation in the support for her. The amount of votes has always scaled over year and the amount for her doesn’t scale as much. From 2012 to 2013, her votes only increase by 10,000+ which was not enough to keep her 16th place.

Takayanagi Akane (23rd → 37th)

Akane should not drop that many ranks. She has been hovering in the top of Under Girl for a while. She also receives great support from fans. If fans dedicate 2 colors to show their support, that speaks a lots of the magnitude of support she has. There has not been any significant event that negatively affect her.

It is very likely that she will rank higher when the final result comes.

Ichikawa Miori (57th → 52nd)

The preliminary is not very suprising. It is the same Miori every year with her Lemon character. Transfering to team BII might help her because her character fits very well with NMB theme in general.

Jonishi Kei (40th → 59th)

Jonishi is another member that should not drop rank this year. She has always been part of the NMB Senbatsu line up. Recently, she has a first stage unit with the song Zipper for team N 3rd stage. Many of Jonishi’s colleagues has been saying Jonishi will get her big break this year. In short, Jonishi should be ranked higher on the final day.

Kotani Riho, Shiroma Miru, Yabushita Shu, Tanigawa Airi, Takano Yui

There is a same reason they share that help them enter the ranking: time. They are all Senbatsu members of NMB48. They are undoubtedly popular, or at least well known, in NMB. It is just a matter of time they receive enough support to enter the ranking.

This is very similar to SKE48. A lot of SKE48 members that rank now didn’t rank in the first and second election since they are fairly new. In conclusion, Riho, Miru, Shu, Airi and Yui have done everything right until now and this year is their prime time to shine.

Who should have ranked?

Since the result is from the first day of the voting period, it is extremely unreliable. So there should be members that will rank at the end but is not included.

Jo Eriko
Okay, I am a little bias when it comes to Jo, and I use the word “little” lightly. She was from the 2nd generation and was quite close with Acchan for a while. At one point, Akimoto Yasushi said that she will be the next Acchan (even though he also said the similar things about some other members as well). Lastly, her return to NMB48 shocked everyone a little bit and gave her some attention.

Ogasawara Mayu
Maachun is talented at comedy, that is undeniable, and even goes to the 3rd round in R-1. Her comedian skill has helped her get many spots in variety shows to promote herself.

Who else do you think will rank on June 7th 2014 and why?

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