Election Forecast: While All Eyes On Sashiko And Rena, Veteran Members Are Under Real Battle To Be In Top16(1G)

  April 30, 2012

According to the Shake-Hands event score of 2 latest singles, what change we can see in these several months? As we now have almost all the result of Kobetsu-Shake-Hands for Manatsu no Sounds Good!, who gained more fans who want to meet her, and who are losing the momentum?

Firstly, this list describes who were most popular (whose slots for shake-hands event were sold out sooner) in 25th single Give Me Five!.

(): x1000 Votes in the last election

1. Yuko(122), Yurkirin(74), Rena(37)
4. Mariko(60.5)
(5. Acchan)
6. Takamina(53)
7. Mayuyu(59), Sashiko(45)
9. Kojiharu(53)
10. Tomochin(50.5)
11. Sae(33.5), Akicha(31), KitaRie(28), Miichan(26), Yuihan(16.5), Mocchii(12.5), Jurina(28), Churi(Akane Takayagi)(11.5), Da~Su~(5)
19. Saya-Nee(9), Milky(N/A), Sawako(6), Chuu(23), Amina(16.5), Yuria(N/A), Umechan(12), Shiori Ogiso(N/A), Minarun(5.5), Suzuran(N/A), Reina(5), Yuka(14), Ayaka(9), Kuumin(N/A)
etc. Sayaka(17), Miorin(5)

Then this is current results (of 32 Senbatsu members) of Manatsu no Sounds Good! Of course new figures Paruru, Milky, Kanon and Kawaei, who have enjoyed huge media exposure recently emerged in top positions. 

1. (Acchan,) Yuko, Yukirin, Rena
5. Mariko
6. Takamina
7. Kojiharu, Mayuyu
9. Sashiko

10. Sae, Mocchii, Akicha, Tomochin, Miichan, Yuihan, KitaRie, Churi, Saya-Nee, Jurina, Milky
21. Suzuran
22. Yuria
23. Chuu
24. Kanon
25. Paruru
26. Kawaei

There are several noticeable changes from the previous single.
0. How King of SKE, Rena will do in the next election?? (She will be in top-5!?)
1. Kojiharu doubled her pace of sales for this single!! (Only Kojiharu had huge change among veteran Senbatsu members!!)
2. NMB members (Milky and Saya-Nee) are finally assigned full 18 slots, and they easily sold all them out in 2nd series of sales!!! (As NMB joined the race for top positions, battle for top-16 is gonna be soooo grueling!!)
3. Sahiko hasn’t gotten huge boost. (Because most of her fans are now spending fortune for her single!!!)
4. Actually SKE fans, or more specifically Rena fans are the greatest Ota!! (Because they also bought her Kobetsu Shake-hands event tickets for AKB’s single ‘Aishiteraburu’ at the speed of light, and all her slots were sold out in a flash!) <-- By the way Sassy and Rena is known to be best friends. When Sassy's solo debut was announced in Feb, the first person sent her a congratulation was Rena (along with Siori Nakamata and Natsumi Matsubara. 5gen, Sae, Minegishi also sent their blessings to Sashiko.)

But as for top-10 members, according to this chart and voices from fans, I think there will be less surprise. Sashiko may do better but it’s quite unlikely she will make huge leap than our expect, since even though she is enjoying tons of (overwhelming) media exposure, she doesn’t have a long history… until recently she had been just one of top-5~10 members, while Rena is enjoying outstanding serge throughout this 12 months after the last election.
Anyway it’s easy to guess the result of top-9. My prediction is… 
Top 9 will be Yuko, Yukirin, Mariko, Takamina, Mayuyu, Kojiharu, Sashiko, Rena and…. Tomochin.
Yes it’s so boring since there’s no surprise. But I think Mariko, Takamina, Mayuyu, Kojiharu, Sashiko, Rena, will have similar numbers of votes, making it difficult to predict 3rd, 4th and 5th.
So how about the top10~16, where most fierce fight will be expected??? Unlike top-10 members, being in top-16 or not makes a significant difference for their career in Shoz-Biz. (Who think members for couplings can guest popular TV music show?)
Jurina, Sae, Miichan, KitaRie, Yuihan, Mochii, Akicha, Sayaka and Chuu, and rising new faces such as Saya-Nee, Milky, Churi are expected to be around top 16.

Reference:

25th GIVE ME FIVE! Kobetsu Shake-Hands event: Theatre Version
1stLottery  2nd         3rd
大島   18/18 完売(Sold out)
柏木   18/18 完売
松井玲 18/18 完売
篠田   16/18     18/18 完売
前田敦 12/18     18/18 完売
高橋み 10/18     18/18 完売
渡辺麻 *7/18     18/18 完売
指原   *7/18     18/18 完売
小嶋陽 *3/18     18/18 完売
板野   *1/18     18/18 完売
宮澤   *0/18     18/18 完売
高城   *0/18     18/18 完売
北原   *0/18     18/18 完売
峯岸   *0/18     18/18 完売
横山   *0/18     18/18 完売
倉持   *0/18     18/18 完売
松井珠 *0/18     18/18 完売
高柳   *0/18     18/18 完売
須田   *0/18     18/18 完売
山本   *0/12     12/12 完売
渡辺美 *0/12     12/12 完売 
秦    *0/18     14/18     18/18 完売
河西   *0/18     13/18     18/18 完売
佐藤亜 *0/18     12/18     18/18 完売
木﨑   *0/18     12/18     18/18 完売
梅田   *0/18     12/18     18/18 完売
小木曽 *0/18     12/18     18/18 完売
大場   *0/18     10/18     18/18 完売
山内   *0/18     10/18     18/18 完売
藤江   *0/18     *8/18     18/18 完売
増田   *0/18     *3/18     18/18 完売
菊地   *0/18     *2/18     18/18 完売
矢神   *0/18     *0/18     18/18 完売


1st         2nd         3rd         4th         5th         6th  
秋元   *0/18     *0/18     16/18     18/18 完売
木本   *0/18     *0/18     16/18     18/18 完売
永尾   *0/18     *0/18     15/18     18/18 完売
大家   *0/18     *0/18     10/18     17/18     18/18 完売
島崎   *0/18     *0/18     *8/18     17/18     18/18 完売
大矢   *0/18     *0/18     *8/18     16/18     18/18 完売
川栄   *0/18     *0/18     10/18     15/18     18/18 完売
平松   *0/18     *0/18     *6/18     15/18     18/18 完売
多田   *0/18     *0/18     *4/18     13/18     17/18     18/18 完売
小森   *0/18     *0/18     *6/18     14/18     16/18     16/18 残少1
松井咲 *0/18     *0/18     *4/18     12/18     15/18     16/18 残少1
佐藤す *0/18     *0/18     *5/18     12/18     15/18     15/18 残少1
市川   *0/18     *0/18     *3/18     11/18     14/18     14/18 残少2
高橋朱 *0/18     *0/18     *1/18     *9/18     12/18     13/18 残少1
入山   *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *6/18     *9/18     12/18 残少2
平嶋   *0/18     *0/18     *3/18     *9/18     12/18     12/18 残少1
古川   *0/18     *0/18     *2/18     *8/18     11/18     11/18
佐々木 *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *5/18     *9/18     *9/18 残少2
仁藤   *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *4/18     *8/18     *8/18 残少1
仲川   *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *2/18     *6/18     *8/18
島田晴 *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *5/18     *7/18     *7/18 残少2
小嶋菜 *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *5/18     *6/18     *7/18 残少2
前田亜 *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *4/18     *7/18     *7/18 残少1
向田   *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *3/18     *6/18     *6/18 残少2
石田晴 *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *2/18     *3/18     *5/18 残少2
宮崎   *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *1/18     *3/18     *3/18 残少1
岩佐   *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *1/18     *1/18     *2/18 残少3
片山   *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *1/18     *1/18 残少1
竹内美 *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *0/18     *1/18     *1/18
仲俣   *0/15     *0/15     *0/15     *5/15     *6/15     *6/15 残少1
野中   *0/15     *0/15     *0/15     *0/15     *1/15     *1/15

山田菜 *0/12     *4/12     12/12 完売
福本   *0/12     *2/12     12/12 完売
小笠原 *0/12     *0/12     *7/12     12/12 完売
金子   *0/12     *0/12     *6/12     *9/12     *9/12     10/12 残少2
矢方   *0/12     *0/12     *3/12     *6/12     *6/12     *8/12
原     *0/12     *0/12     *3/12     *5/12     *6/12     *6/12
梅本   *0/12     *0/12     *2/12     *5/12     *5/12     *5/12
白間   *0/12     *0/12     *0/12     *2/12     *2/12     *2/12
上西   *0/12     *0/12     *0/12     *1/12     *2/12     *2/12
佐藤夏 *0/12     *0/12     *0/12     *0/12     *0/12     *0/12 残少1
松本   *0/*9     *0/*9     *2/*9     *4/*9     *5/*9     *5/*9 残少1
小野   *0/*9     *0/*9     *1/*9     *4/*9     *5/*9     *5/*9
松村   *0/*9     *0/*9     *2/*9     *3/*9     *3/*9     *3/*9 残少1
岩田   *0/*9     *0/*9     *2/*9     *3/*9     *3/*9     *3/*9
大森   *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *1/*9     *3/*9     *3/*9
鈴木ま *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *1/*9     *3/*9     *3/*9
田野   *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *1/*9     *1/*9 残少2
柴田   *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *1/*9     *1/*9     *1/*9 残少1
木下有 *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *1/*9     *1/*9
石田安 *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9 残少1
鈴木紫 *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9     *0/*9 残少1
阿比留 *0/*6     *0/*6     *3/*6     *4/*6     *5/*6     *5/*6 残少1
小林亜 *0/*6     *0/*6     *1/*6     *4/*6     *4/*6     *5/*6 残少1    
小林茉 *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *3/*6     *4/*6     *5/*6 残少1
平田璃 *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *2/*6     *4/*6     *4/*6 残少1
出口   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *2/*6     *3/*6     *4/*6 残少1
小谷   *0/*6     *0/*6     *2/*6     *2/*6     *4/*6     *4/*6
門脇   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *1/*6     *4/*6     *4/*6
中村麻 *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *2/*6     *2/*6 残少1
近藤   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *2/*6     *2/*6
高田   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *1/*6     *2/*6
加藤玲 *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *1/*6 残少5
岸野   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *1/*6     *1/*6
中西優 *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *1/*6     *1/*6     *1/*6
藤田  *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *1/*6     *1/*6
武藤   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6 残少1
加藤る *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6 残少1
今出   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6 残少1
山下  *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6 残少1
松田   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6 残少1


26th Manatsu no Sounds good ! Kobetsu Shake-Hands Event: Theater Version (○=Media Senbatsu)

「守る者」 Mamoru mono (One to be chased, Defender (of AKB’s heritage))
○9.0前田敦 18/18 完売(Sold Out)
○9.0大島優 18/18 完売
○9.0柏木   18/18 完売
○8.5松井玲 18/18 完売
○9.0篠田   16/18     18/18 完売
○9.0高橋み *9/18     18/18 完売
○9.0小嶋陽 *8/18     18/18 完売
○9.0指原   *8/18     18/18 完売
  9.0宮澤   *0/18     18/18 完売
  9.0倉持   *0/18     18/18 完売
○9.0高城   *0/18     18/18 完売
○9.0板野   *0/18     18/18 完売
  9.0峯岸   *0/18     18/18 完売
  9.0横山   *0/18     18/18 完売
  9.0北原   *0/18     18/18 完売
  8.5高柳   *0/18     18/18 完売
○8.5山本彩 *0/18     18/18 完売
  9.0河西   *0/18     13/18     18/18 完売

「攻める者」 Semeru Mono(Chaser, Attacker (create AKB’s next history))
○9.0渡辺麻 *8/18     18/18 完売
○8.5松井珠 *0/18     18/18 完売
○8.5渡辺美 *0/18     18/18 完売
○9.0山内鈴 *0/18     16/18     18/18 完売
  8.5木﨑   *0/18     16/18     18/18 完売
○8.5木本   *0/18     *5/18     18/18 完売
○9.0島崎   *0/18     *5/18     18/18 完売
○2.0兒玉   *0/*6     *0/*6     *6/*6 完売
  9.0川栄   *0/18     *0/18     13/18     18/18 完売    
  9.0市川   *0/18     *0/18     *8/18     14/18     16/18 
  8.5高橋朱 *0/18     *0/18     *6/18     14/18     16/18
○9.0入山   *0/18     *0/18     *1/18     *5/18     *8/18 
  8.5島田晴 *0/18     *0/18     *3/18     *5/18     *8/18
  7.0竹内美 *0/15     *0/15     *2/15     *5/15     *8/15 
○4.0岩田   *0/*9     *0/*9     *3/*9     *4/*9     *4/*9 残少1
○4.0加藤玲 *0/*9     *0/*9     *3/*9     *4/*9     *4/*9     
○3.0城     *0/*6     *0/*6     *2/*6     *3/*6     *4/*6
  3.0阿部   *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6     *0/*6